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Plus, the nitty-gritty of Ohio’s redistricting rules
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State Signals

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Thanks to Republicans' control of all three branches of state government, they hold nearly all the levers of power as they prepare to redraw the state’s new congressional district lines later this year. 


Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has been publicly pushing Republican state legislatures to aggressively gerrymander districts to preserve the GOP’s narrow majority in the U.S. House in the midterm elections next year.


But Ohio Democrats have one potential check on that power: the state’s referendum process, which puts newly passed laws on hold until voters can approve or reject them in a statewide election.


The complications a referendum poses means Republicans may have to decide: Are they worried enough to consider striking a deal with Democrats?


I believe this possibility has likely occurred to all major players in the redistricting process β€” Republican and Democratic leaders as well as outside advocacy groups, which often challenge maps in court. And I want to inform Ohioans about this high-stakes process so they can understand what might be motivating state officials when redistricting occurs later this year.


Here’s how and why such a scenario plays out.

The nitty-gritty of Ohio’s redistricting rules

Ohio voters in 2018 approved a new system of drawing congressional district lines with rules meant to encourage bipartisan cooperation. These rules spell out three phases of congressional redistricting. In the first two phases, which will occur in September and October, Republicans can only pass a new congressional map if they can get at least some Democrats to support it. 


If there’s no bipartisan deal by November, Republicans are allowed to pass a map with a party-line vote in the state legislature. I’ve been focused on this possibility because it offers Republicans the easiest path to achieve their political goals.


But this map would be passed as a bill, which is subject to potential repeal by voters. First, though, opponents would need to collect 248,092 voter signatures.


Getting these signatures takes money and people, which opponents of a Republican-passed higher education law learned the hard way earlier this summer. However, state Democrats could find willing donors by pitching it as a way to stop Republicans from using their redistricting power to take control of the U.S. House. 


β€œWe’re trying to take back the House,” one Democratic strategist explained about why such an effort could be in play. β€œI don’t think national Dems would bat an eye at dropping a couple million in Ohio to fund a signature effort.” 


There’s a precedent for something similar. In 2011, the Ohio Supreme Court gave the green light to Ohio Democrats to try to repeal a Republican-drawn congressional map, even though state officials argued they shouldn’t be allowed to. The effort fizzled after Democrats ran out of money.

Making sense of the Statehouse

What happens in Columbus doesn't stay in Columbus. At Signal Statewide, we track what lawmakers are debating β€” and what it means for your town, school or small business. Our team explains complicated bills in plain English, asks tough questions and puts the focus where it belongs: on everyday Ohioans. If our reporting helps you stay informed, have better conversations, or feel more in control of what's going on in Ohio, we hope you'll support it.

🀍 Donate to keep Ohioans informed!

Republican options to prevent a referendum

If Republicans are really worried about a referendum, they have a few options to derail it. 


They could give it added protection by making it a spending bill. This would be a way to try to make it referendum-proof, since the state constitution says new laws funding current state operations can’t be repealed. Republicans tried this legislative trick in 2011 by adding a few million dollars of election funding to their bill redrawing the state’s congressional districts. They lost in court. But the current Ohio Supreme Court may see things differently. 


Another possibility would be to pass a map in October during the redistricting process’ second phase. This would involve a panel of elected officials called the Ohio Redistricting Commission. Language in the state constitution suggests a commission-passed map is exempt from referendum. But they’d have to get Democratic votes to approve it.

One big problem with this whole referendum idea

If Democrats do manage to collect enough signatures, the referendum would throw next year’s elections into question because Ohio needs to hold congressional elections in May and November. But the new map would be blocked until November, when the vote would be scheduled for voters to accept or reject it.


Republicans might have options to respond. But it still would probably land in court, just as we saw in the dysfunctional redistricting cycle ahead of the 2022 elections.

Buckeye politicians fundraising recap

Federal candidates were required to file reports on Tuesday disclosing all their campaign fundraising from April through June. 


Here are some quick highlights:

  • Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted, who’s standing for election next year, has $2.65 million in campaign cash after raising $2 million and spending $293,000. He’s now raised $3 million this year, 27th-most in the Senate. Democrats haven’t yet fielded a Senate candidate, and Husted has no major Republican challenger.

  • Democratic U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, of Toledo, has $941,000 in cash after raising $412,300 as she gears up for another tough reelection campaign next year. Assessing the Republican field in the race is tricky since two top candidates, Josh Williams and Derek Merrin, are still setting up campaign accounts. A third Republican candidate, Alea Nadeem, has $85,600 in cash after raising $133,550.

  • In Ohio’s other most competitive U.S. House race, Rep. Emilia Sykes, of Akron, raised $523,800 and now has $619,300 in cash. Republican challenger Kevin Coughlin raised $302,000 and now has $332,900 in cash.

Summer vacation

The Ohio House is cutting its summer recess short to hold votes on Monday to potentially overturn three property-tax-related sections that Gov. Mike DeWine vetoed from the state budget bill. And our team will be covering it. 


But my family vacation will continue as planned, so the newsletter will be off next week. State Signals will be tanned, rested and ready to resume publishing on July 31.

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Thanks for reading,


Andrew Tobias

Signal Ohio

andrew@signalohio.org

@AndrewJTobias

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